According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than the optimistic forecast on popular betting market Polymarket.
77% and Rising: The Optimism Surrounding a US Solana ETF Listing
On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket stated that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. In a recent post on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as "underpriced."
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump said he wants to make America "the world’s crypto capital." Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
The Industry’s Expectations: A Green Light for Crypto ETFs
Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of January 2nd, according to its website. This surge in optimism is not isolated; industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged the asset managers’ plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The Grantor Trust Structure: A Crucial Factor in Success
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs—the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges—use an atypical "grantor trust" structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers say success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure.
Bullish Bettors: The Optimism Surrounding Crypto Markets
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. The odds are certainly in favor of a Solana ETF listing this year, and industry analysts expect more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs to receive regulatory approval.
The Impact of Trump’s Presidential Win on Crypto Regulations
President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community, with many expecting a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
The Road Ahead: Regulatory Approval and Market Sentiment
While regulatory approval is crucial for any proposed crypto ETF listing, market sentiment remains optimistic. Bettors on Polymarket have already begun wagering on the success of several new types of crypto ETFs, with many expecting a banner year for cryptocurrency markets.
In conclusion, the odds favor a Solana (SOL) ETF listing in the United States this year, and industry analysts expect more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs to receive regulatory approval. The pro-crypto stance of President-elect Trump has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community, with many expecting a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
Related:
Sources:
- Polymarket
- Dune Analytics