A Reassuring Sign for Central Bank Policymakers
Consumer prices in Canada rose at the slowest pace since June, a reassuring sign for central bank policymakers that rates are working to slow the economy and inflation.
Key Takeaways:
- The data released on Tuesday extended September’s progress in the fight against inflation.
- The numbers will give policymakers more confidence that their previous rate hikes are working.
- With the Canadian economy already showing signs of stagnation and inflation expected to slow further, many economists say rate hikes are done for this cycle.
Interest Rate Decision Looms
The next interest rate decision is scheduled for December 6. The majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the bank to keep borrowing costs unchanged again.
Economic Backdrop Weighing on Prices
A weak economic backdrop should work to limit prices further in these measures, and could allow the Bank of Canada to start cutting rates as early as Q2 next year, said Katherine Judge, an economist with the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
Inflation Expectations
The central bank expects the consumer price index to average about 3.5 per cent through mid-2024, but slashed gross domestic product growth forecasts because consumers are pulling back on demand.
Macklem’s Speech
Markets will be closely watching for any guidance from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, who is set to give a speech on the cost of high inflation before the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce in New Brunswick on Wednesday.
Regional Breakdown
Prices increased at a slower pace from a year ago compared with September in all 10 Canadian provinces.
Rental Costs Continue to Rise
Canadians continued to feel the impact of rising rental costs, which rose 8.2 per cent from a year ago, compared with 7.3 per cent in September.
Property Taxes and Special Charges
Property taxes and other special charges, priced annually in October, rose 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reflecting acceleration across most provinces.
Sources:
- Bloomberg.com
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
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